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RBA Interest Rate Decision Preview – May 20, 2025

As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares to announce its monetary policy decision on May 20, 2025, market consensus and economic indicators strongly suggest a 25 basis point cut to the official cash rate, bringing it down from 4.10% to 3.85%. This would mark the second rate cut in the current easing cycle, following a similar move in February.

Key Drivers Behind the Expected Rate Cut

  1. Softening Inflation and Economic Growth
    Recent inflation data has shown a continued moderation, aligning with the RBA’s medium-term target of 2–3%. Coupled with subdued consumer spending and a cooling housing market, the economic environment supports a more accommodative monetary stance
  2. Labour Market Stability with Emerging Slack
    While the job market remains relatively stable, wage growth has slowed to 0.9% in the latest quarter, and participation rates are showing early signs of declineThese trends reduce the risk of wage-driven inflation and give the RBA room to ease policy.
  3. Global Economic Uncertainty
    Governor Michele Bullock has emphasized the importance of monitoring global financial conditions, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and slowing growth in key trading partnersA rate cut would help buffer the domestic economy against external shocks.
  4. Market and Lender Expectations
    Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point cut, and major lenders have already begun reducing home loan rates in anticipationThis preemptive move by banks reflects strong confidence in the RBA’s direction and aims to stimulate borrowing and investment.
  5. Diverging Views on the Magnitude of the Cut
    While the consensus is for a 25 basis point reduction, some economists and commentators, such as Stephen Koukoulas, argue for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut to avoid “unnecessary pain” and bring rates closer to the estimated neutral level of 3.0–3.25% . However, the RBA is likely to proceed cautiously to maintain credibility and flexibility.

Outlook Beyond May

The Reuters poll indicates that two additional rate cuts are expected before the end of 2025. This suggests a gradual easing cycle aimed at supporting growth while ensuring inflation remains anchored.

 

RBA Interest Rate Decision Preview – May 20, 2025

RBA Interest Rate Decision Preview – May 20, 2025

Chart Details:

  • Blue line: Actual RBA rates up to May 2025, peaking at 4.35% and holding steady until a cut to 4.10% in February 2025.
  • Red line: Forecasted rate cuts:
    • 3.85% on May 20, 2025
    • 3.60% in July
    • 3.35% in August
    • 3.10% in November
    • 2.85% by February 2026

Conclusion:
The RBA is widely expected to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on May 20, 2025. This move reflects a balancing act between supporting a slowing economy and maintaining vigilance on inflation. While some advocate for a bolder cut, the RBA is likely to opt for a measured approach, preserving optionality for future decisions.

To find out about your options, call your Origin Finance Broker directly, fill in the enquiry form or call  1300 30 6767.

Origin helps you make the right home or investment loan choice. Call us today 1300 30 67 67.

Mortgages for Long Haul Truck Drivers

Long haul truck drivers have unique financial needs due to the nature of their job. Securing a mortgage can be challenging, but with the right information and guidance, it is possible to find a mortgage that suits your needs. This article will explore mortgage options for long haul truck drivers and provide tips on how to navigate the mortgage process.

Understanding Mortgage Options

As a long haul truck driver, your income may vary, and you may face challenges in proving your income stability. However, there are mortgage options available that cater to individuals with non-traditional income sources. Some of these options include:

  1. Stated Income Mortgages: These mortgages allow you to state your income without providing traditional proof, such as pay stubs or tax returns. This can be beneficial for truck drivers with fluctuating incomes.
  2. Low Doc Mortgages: These mortgages require less documentation than traditional mortgages. They are designed for self-employed individuals or those with irregular income.
  3. Specialised Lenders: Some lenders specialise in providing mortgages to individuals with unique financial situations, such as long haul truck drivers. These lenders may offer more flexible terms and conditions.

Tips for Securing a Mortgage

  1. Maintain Good Credit: A good credit score is essential for securing a mortgage with favorable terms. Make sure to pay your bills on time and manage your debt responsibly.
  2. Save for a Down Payment: Having a substantial down payment can improve your chances of getting approved for a mortgage. Aim to save at least 20% of the home’s purchase price.
  3. Work with a Mortgage Broker: A mortgage broker can help you navigate the mortgage process and find the best mortgage options for your situation. They have access to a wide range of lenders and can negotiate on your behalf.
  4. Provide Proof of Income: While it may be challenging, try to provide as much proof of income as possible. This can include bank statements, tax returns, and contracts with trucking companies.

Conclusion

Securing a mortgage as a long haul truck driver may require some extra effort, but it is achievable with the right approach. By understanding your mortgage options, maintaining good credit, saving for a down payment, and working with a mortgage broker, you can find a mortgage that meets your needs. Remember, the key is to be prepared and informed throughout the process.

To find out about your options, call your Origin Finance Broker directly, fill in the enquiry form or call  1300 30 6767.

Origin helps you make the right home or investment loan choice. Call us today 1300 30 67 67.

Conquering the Great Aussie Mortgage Maze: Tips for First-Time Homebuyers

Owning a home in Australia is a cherished dream for many, but navigating the mortgage process can feel like unraveling a tangled ball of yarn. Fear not, intrepid first-time homebuyers! With these handy tips, you’ll be strutting into your dream home with confidence and a smile.

Financial Bootcamp:

Pre-Approval Power: Before swooning over stunning listings, get pre-approved for a mortgage. This crucial step reveals your borrowing capacity and gives you an edge in negotiations. Mortgage brokers can be your allies, comparing offerings from diverse lenders to find the perfect match.

Budget Beyond Bricks: Remember, your mortgage isn’t the only financial commitment. Factor in ongoing costs like council rates, utilities, and surprise plumbing woes. Don’t forget the joys of furnishing your new haven!

Deposit Dilemmas: Aiming for a 20% deposit minimizes Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) costs, but don’t let a hefty sum delay your homeownership dreams. Explore government schemes like the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and Family Guarantees, which can bridge the gap.

Picking the Perfect Loan:

Fixed vs. Variable: Fixed-rate loans offer predictable repayments, while variable rates can be cheaper over time. Weigh your risk tolerance and future plans when making this crucial decision.

Feature Frenzy: Don’t just chase the lowest interest rate! Compare additional features like offset accounts, redraw facilities, and repayment flexibility. Watch out for hidden fees and ask plenty of questions before signing on the dotted line.

 

Beyond the Loan:

Expert Allies: Consider enlisting a buyer’s agent. They’ll navigate the market with ninja-like expertise, advocate for your needs, and help you land the perfect property.

Open House Hustle: Be organized and efficient when viewing homes. Ask specific questions about the property, the neighbourhood, and potential maintenance issues.

Emotional Intelligence: While charming facades can tug at your heartstrings, prioritize your needs over fleeting desires. Stick to your budget and don’t let emotions cloud wise advice. Remember, there’s always another house waiting to be called home!

Buying your first home in Australia is an exciting adventure. By being prepared, informed, and open to guidance, you’ll conquer the mortgage maze and land the perfect place to call your own. So, grab your metaphorical map and compass, and get ready to unlock the door to your Aussie dream home!

Bonus Tip: Embrace technology! Many Australian lenders offer pre-approval tools and mortgage calculators, making the process smoother and more transparent.

Fist Home Buyer LoansTo have a personal guide to assist you with your first home , contact Origin Finance by calling 1300 30 6767 or filling in the enquiry form on this page.

Navigating the Waves: Assessing the Impact of the 2024 Australian Income Tax Changes on Property Affordability

The year 2024 marks a significant chapter in Australia’s economic landscape, as the nation undergoes key income tax changes that have far-reaching implications for various sectors, including the real estate market. This article aims to explore the impact of the 2024 Australian income tax changes on property affordability, shedding light on how these adjustments may influence prospective homebuyers and the overall housing market.

Changes in Taxation:

In 2024, the Australian government implemented a series of income tax changes aimed at fostering economic growth and creating a fairer tax system. These changes include adjustments to tax brackets, deductions, and other relevant factors that directly impact the disposable income of individuals and families.

Impact on Property Affordability:

  1. Disposable Income and Affordability:

One of the primary factors influencing property affordability is the disposable income of potential homebuyers. With the new tax brackets and adjustments, individuals and families may experience changes in their take-home pay. This shift in disposable income can directly influence the purchasing power of prospective homebuyers, potentially affecting their ability to enter the property market.

  1. Interest Rates and Mortgage Affordability:

Changes in income tax can also have a cascading effect on interest rates set by financial institutions. If the adjustments lead to shifts in the overall economic climate, it may impact interest rates on mortgages. Homebuyers should closely monitor these changes, as fluctuations in interest rates can significantly affect the affordability of property loans.

  1. Regional Disparities:

The impact of income tax changes on property affordability may not be uniform across all regions of Australia. High-demand areas may experience more pronounced effects, while regional markets may be comparatively less affected. Prospective buyers should consider these regional disparities when assessing the affordability of properties in specific locations.

  1. Government Initiatives:

Governments often implement various measures to counterbalance the potential challenges posed by tax changes. First-home buyer grants, stamp duty concessions, and other incentives may be introduced to mitigate the impact on property affordability. It is essential for homebuyers to stay informed about such initiatives to make informed decisions.

Conclusion:

As Australia undergoes significant income tax changes in 2024, the impact on property affordability remains a dynamic and evolving aspect of the real estate landscape. Prospective homebuyers are advised to stay vigilant, keeping a close eye on how these changes may affect their disposable income, interest rates, and overall purchasing power. Additionally, understanding regional variations and government initiatives can empower individuals and families to navigate the evolving landscape of property affordability in the wake of the 2024 Australian income tax adjustments.

If you are interested if finding out your norrowing ability, contact

Assessing the Impact of the 2024 Australian Income Tax Changes on Property Affordabilityyour Origin Finance Broker by calling 1300 30 6767 or filling in the enquiry form on this page.

Australian Property Market Outlook: Sunshine or Storm Clouds in 2024?

The Australian property market in 2023 defied expectations, showcasing surprising resilience. But as we step into 2024, experts paint a mixed picture, leaving many wondering: Sunshine or storm clouds ahead?

Moderate Growth or Price Correction?

While some predict continued, albeit modest, growth, others foresee a potential price correction. Leading banks anticipate national price increases of 5-7%. ANZ expects Brisbane and Perth to shine, with gains of 9-10% and 7-8% respectively. However, Westpac warns of a possible 3-5% nationwide dip, with Sydney and Melbourne most vulnerable due to high debt levels.

Key Factors Shaking the Foundations

Several forces are shaping the market’s trajectory:

  • Interest Rates: Rising interest rates are pinching budgets, dampening affordability and buyer demand. The Reserve Bank’s future actions will be crucial. Some predict rate cuts later in 2024, potentially reviving demand.
  • Affordability Constraints: With prices exceeding wage growth, affordability is becoming a challenge, especially for first-home buyers. This may further suppress demand.
  • Supply and Demand: Undersupply, particularly in major cities, could continue to exert upward pressure on prices. However, increased listings are expected as fixed-rate borrowers roll off their terms and affordability constraints force some sellers into the market.

Regional Variations to Consider

The national forecast masks regional disparities. Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide, with lower debt levels and strong interstate migration, are expected to fare better than Sydney and Melbourne.

Navigating the Uncertainty

For potential buyers and sellers, navigating this uncertain landscape requires careful consideration. Staying informed about economic data, interest rate movements, and local market trends is essential. Seeking professional advice tailored to your individual circumstances can be invaluable.

The Bottom Line:

The Australian property market in 2024 is likely to be a year of transition. While some growth is possible, affordability constraints and rising interest rates pose challenges. Careful planning and expert guidance are crucial for navigating this dynamic market.

For help with working out if a properrty purchase is affordable for you, call 1300 30 6767 to talk to Origin or fill in the enquiry form on this page.

What Low Deposit Loan Assistance is Available to me To Buy a Home

The Australian Home Guarantee Scheme (HGS) is a government initiative that helps eligible borrowers purchase a home with a smaller deposit. The scheme was introduced in 2019 and has been expanded several times since then.

On 1 July 2023, a number of changes to the HGS came into effect, including:

  • Permanent residents are now eligible. Previously, the HGS was only available to Australian citizens. However, from 1 July 2023, eligible borrowers who are Australian permanent residents will also have access to the scheme.
  • Joint applications are now allowed. Previously, only single applicants were eligible for the HGS. However, from 1 July 2023, two eligible individuals can now apply for the scheme together. This is a welcome change for couples and friends who are looking to buy a home together.
  • Previous home owners can now apply. Previously, only first home buyers were eligible for the HGS. However, from 1 July 2023, eligible borrowers who have previously owned a home can also apply for the scheme, as long as they have not owned a property in the past 10 years. This is good news for people who are looking to buy a new home after selling their previous one.

In addition to these changes, the HGS has also been expanded to include 10,000 new places for eligible single parents with at least one dependent child who have a deposit of as little as 2%.

These changes to the HGS make it more accessible to a wider range of borrowers. If you are thinking about buying a home, it is worth checking to see if you are eligible for the scheme.

Can I apply for the Home Guarantee Scheme if I have previously owned a home?

Yes, from 1 July 2023, eligible borrowers who have previously owned a home can apply for the HGS, as long as they have not owned a property in the past 10 years.

This is good news for people who are looking to buy a new home after selling their previous one, or for people who have previously owned a home but have since separated or divorced.

To be eligible for the HGS, you must also meet the following criteria:

  • You must be an Australian citizen or permanent resident.
  • You must be at least 18 years old.
  • You must have a deposit of at least 5% (2% for the Family Home Guarantee).
  • You must intend to be an owner-occupier of the purchased property.

If you are interested in applying for the HGS, you should contact a participating lender.

What are the benefits of applying for the Home Guarantee Scheme?

The main benefit of applying for the HGS is that you can purchase a home with a smaller deposit. This can make it easier and more affordable to buy a home, especially in expensive markets.

In addition, the HGS can help you to avoid paying lender’s mortgage insurance (LMI). LMI is a type of insurance that protects the lender in case you are unable to repay your loan. However, it can be expensive, so avoiding LMI can save you a significant amount of money.

How can I apply for the Home Guarantee Scheme?

To apply for the HGS, you must contact a participating lender. A participating lender is a lender that has agreed to participate in the scheme.

You can find a list of participating lenders on the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC) website.

Once you have contacted a participating lender, they will be able to help you to assess your eligibility for the scheme and to apply for a loan.

Conclusion

The Australian Home Guarantee Scheme is a great way for eligible borrowers to purchase a home with a smaller deposit. The recent changes to the scheme make it more accessible to a wider range of borrowers, including permanent residents, joint applicants, and previous home owners.

If you are thinking about buying a home, it is worth checking to see if you are eligible for the HGS by contacing your Origin Finance Broker by calling 1300 30 6767 or filling in the enquiry form on this page.

 

What to Do if You’re Hit by the Mortgage Cliff

The mortgage cliff is a situation where homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments suddenly increase significantly when their fixed-rate loan term expires. This can happen when interest rates have risen since the loan was taken out. The sudden increase in payments can put a strain on homeowners’ budgets and lead to financial hardship.

If you’re facing the mortgage cliff, there are a few things you can do to get relief:

  1. Talk to your lender. Your lender may be willing to work with you to lower your monthly payments. They may be able to offer you a lower interest rate, a longer loan term, or a payment holiday. If you are in real trouble do to an event like unemployment or sickness, you can apply for “Hardship” where you can stop or reduce payments for a period of time without it neccessarily effecting you credit report.
  2. Refinance your loan. If your lender is not willing to work with you, you may be able to refinance your loan to a lower interest rate. This can save you money on your monthly payments, but it may also involve closing costs.
  3. Make extra payments on your loan. If you can afford to, make extra payments on your loan each month. This will help you pay down your debt faster and reduce your monthly payments.
  4. Consider selling your home. If you can’t afford the higher payments, you may need to sell your home. This is a drastic step, but it may be the only way to avoid financial hardship.
What to Do if You’re Hit by the Mortgage Cliff

What to Do if You’re Hit by the Mortgage Cliff

If you’re facing the mortgage cliff, don’t panic. There are options available to help you get relief. Talk to your lender and explore all of your options.

Here are some additional tips for getting through the mortgage cliff:

  • Create a budget. This will help you track your income and expenses so you can see where your money is going.
  • Cut back on expenses. Look for ways to reduce your spending, such as eating out less or canceling unused subscriptions.
  • Get a second job. If you can, get a part-time job to bring in more income.
  • Seek financial help. There are government programs and non-profit organizations that can help homeowners who are struggling to make their mortgage payments.

The mortgage cliff can be a stressful situation, but it’s important to remember that you’re not alone. There are people who can help you get through it.

For a free assessment with your Origin Finance broker call 1300 30 67 67 or fill in the enquiry form on this page.

The Bond Market Says Your Home Loan Rates Will Fall

Normally if you are going to lock your money away for a period of time you would expect to get a higher return. Same as if you are looking for a fixed rate home loan, the longer the time frame the higher the rates should be as an offset of time and risk. The bond market is the same, long term rates should be much higher than short term rates to take into account the same dynamics.

Currently 1 to 10 year bond rates are below or at the Target Cash rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The cash rate is 4.10% while the 5 year bond rate is 3.875% . Normally it should be between 0.25 and 0.75% above the rate depending on the market outlook and is actually currently 0.225% below the RBA’s target cash rate. Like wise all the medium term rates are below the target cash rate set by the RBA, for example the 1 year rate is 3.97% , 0.013% below it while the difference between 10 Year Bond rate and cash rate has dropped to zero.

This normally means that the market expects to see interest rates drop. A little in the next year and possibly more in 2 to 10 years.

Bond Market Says Home Loan Rates Will Fall

Bond Market Says Home Loan Rates Will Fall

What does this mean for you as a home owner or potential owner? It means that home loan interest rates could possibly have peaked and some relief is on the way. It can also mean increased activity and prices as historically when interest rates fall, property prices increase. This is to some extent why we have seen the increase this year in prices in metro centres as buyer are trying to “get in” before the price rise happens which has been exacerbated also by a lack of supply, especially in new home construction.

If you want to avoid the stampede that happens as rates go down, now may be a good time to think about getting your finances in order and planning your next real estate move, whether it’s your first home , an upgrade or another investment property .

For a free assessment with your Origin Finance broker call 1300 30 67 67 or fill in the enquiry form on this page.

Early Spring Selling Season Sees Dramatic Increase in Available Property to Buy in Sydney and Melbourne, Now is the Time to Get Preapproved for a Loan as Demand is Increasing to Match Activity as People Fear Missing Out on the Next Boom

The early spring selling season has gotten off to a strong start in Sydney and Melbourne, with a dramatic increase in available property to buy. This is good news for buyers, who are now spoilt for choice.

There are a number of factors that are driving the increase in available property. One factor is uncertainty about interest rates. As interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive for homeowners to borrow money, so they are more likely to sell their homes. Another factor is the pent up demand from sellers wanting to take advantage of the solid buyer demand to upgrade or down size so they are more likely to list their homes.

The increase in available property is particularly pronounced in Sydney and Melbourne. These two cities have been the most affected by the recent property market downturn. As a result, there are now more homes available for sale in Sydney and Melbourne than at any time in the past few years.

This is good news for buyers, who are now in a stronger position to negotiate a good deal. However, it is important to remember that the property market is still volatile, so it is important to get preapproved for a loan before you start making offers.

Getting preapproved for a loan will give you an idea of how much you can borrow and what your monthly payments will be. This will give you a strong bargaining position when you are making offers on properties.

It is also important to keep an eye on the interest rates. If interest rates continue to rise, it could make it more difficult for buyers to afford to buy a home. Therefore, it is important to act now if you are thinking of buying a property. If rates fall as is anticipated by the bond market, purchasers can borrow more creating more demand.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a few other reasons why now is a good time to get preapproved for a loan:

  • The lending criteria are still relatively relaxed, so it is easier to get approved for a loan.
  • There are still a good number of properties available, so you have more choice.
  • The competition from other buyers is not as intense as it may be later in the year.

If you are considering buying a property in Sydney or Melbourne, I recommend getting preapproved for a loan as soon as possible. This will give you the peace of mind of knowing that you are financially ready to make an offer on a property.

Here are some additional tips for buyers in the early spring selling season:

  • Be prepared to act quickly. Properties are selling quickly, so you need to be prepared to make an offer as soon as you find a property you like.
  • Be prepared to negotiate. Sellers are more likely to negotiate if they have multiple offers on their property.
  • Get preapproved for a loan. This will give you a strong bargaining position and will make the buying process smoother.
  • Be patient. The property market is still volatile, so it may take some time to find the right property.

By following these tips, you can increase your chances of success in the early spring selling season.

However, there are also some risks to consider.

  • Interest rates are expected to continue to rise, which could make it more expensive to borrow money.
  • The property market could slow down further, making it more difficult to sell your home in the future.
  • There is a risk of overpaying for a property if you buy at the top of the market.

If you are considering buying a property, it is important to weigh the risks and rewards carefully. If you are confident that you can afford the monthly payments and that you are buying a property that you will be happy with for the long term, then now may be a good time to buy.

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to buy a property is a personal one. There is no right or wrong answer, and the best decision for you will depend on your individual circumstances.

For a free assessment with your Origin Finance broker call 1300 30 67 67 or fill in the enquiry form on this page.

The Benefits of Using a Mortgage Broker for Your Finance

Introduction

Buying a home is a big decision, and it’s important to get the right mortgage. A mortgage broker can help you navigate the complex world of home loans and find the best deal for your needs.

In this article, we will discuss the benefits of using a mortgage broker for your finance. We will cover topics such as:

  • What is a mortgage broker?
  • What are the benefits of using a mortgage broker?
  • How to choose a mortgage broker

What is a mortgage broker?

A mortgage broker is a licensed professional who helps people find the best mortgage for their needs. Mortgage brokers have access to a wide range of lenders, so they can shop around for the best interest rate and terms. They can also help you understand the mortgage process and make sure that you are getting the best deal possible.

What are the benefits of using a mortgage broker?

There are many benefits to using a mortgage broker, including:

  • Access to a wider range of lenders: Mortgage brokers have access to a wider range of lenders than you do as an individual. This means they can shop around for the best deal for you, and they can also compare different types of loans to find the one that best suits your needs.
  • Expertise: Mortgage brokers are experts in the mortgage market. They know the latest interest rates, lending criteria, and product features. This means they can help you find a loan that is right for you, and they can also explain the terms and conditions in plain English.
  • Saving time and money: Mortgage brokers can save you time and money by doing the legwork for you. They will shop around for the best deal, and they will also handle all the paperwork. This means you can focus on finding your dream home, and you won’t have to worry about the details of your mortgage.
  • Advocacy: Mortgage brokers are your advocate. They will work with you to find the best deal, and they will also protect your interests throughout the process. This means you can be confident that you are getting the best possible deal, and you can also be sure that your mortgage is processed smoothly.

How to choose a mortgage broker

When choosing a mortgage broker, there are a few things you should keep in mind:

  • Get recommendations: Ask your friends, family, or colleagues for recommendations for mortgage brokers. This is a great way to find a broker who you can trust.
  • Do your research: Once you have a few recommendations, do some research on the different brokers. Read online reviews, and check out their websites.
  • Interview the brokers: Once you have narrowed down your choices, interview the brokers. This will give you a chance to ask questions and get to know them.
  • Choose a broker who you feel comfortable with: The most important thing is to choose a broker who you feel comfortable with. You should feel confident that they will represent your interests and help you find the best deal.

Conclusion

Using a mortgage broker can be a great way to save time and money when buying a home. Mortgage brokers have access to a wide range of lenders, and they are experts in the mortgage market. They can help you find the best deal for your needs, and they can also protect your interests throughout the process.

If you are thinking about buying a home, I recommend that you use a mortgage broker. They can help you find the best deal, and they can also save you time and money.

To see your options, fill in the enquiry form or call Origin on 1300 30 6767

At Origin Finance, We Put You First

Origin Finance is one of Australia’s most respected mortgage brokers. We provide our clients with access to a large panel of lenders with an extensive range of home loan products. Many of these lenders are well-known banks, many others are household names who only lend through brokers; others still are specialist lenders who can meet diverse financial circumstances. Origin helps you make the right home or investment loan choice. Call us today 1300 30 67 67.

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